MD
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.Open26.84−0.08 −0.30%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:15 ET · 20m delay
Open
27.00
Prev close
26.92
Day range
26.7027.08
52-week range
15.8227.94
Volume
11.71K0.02×
Mkt cap
2.18B
P/E ttm
12.84
Fwd P/E
10.99
EPS ttm
2.09
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−3.94%
MD market-implied price distribution
MD Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 54.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 26.84
Expected price
26.91
forward 26.73
68% range
22–31
−16.2% / +15.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 15.17 | −43.5% |
| 16% | 22.49 | −16.2% |
| 25% | 23.97 | −10.7% |
| 50% (median) | 26.52 | −1.2% |
| 75% | 29.22 | +8.9% |
| 84% | 30.94 | +15.3% |
| 95% | 40.67 | +51.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (28.18) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (29.52) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (25.50) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (24.16) | 26% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 26%, 0.8× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.