MCHI
iShares MSCI China ETFClosed52.14−0.02 −0.03%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 52.14 0.00%
Open
52.01
Prev close
52.15
Day range
51.9352.24
52-week range
49.8865.84
Volume
1.76M0.87×
P/E ttm
11.38
EPS ttm
4.58
Div yield
2.09%
From 52w high
−20.82%
MCHI market-implied price distribution
MCHI Price at Expiry
28 OTM quotes · ATM IV 19.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
53%
spot 52.14
Expected price
51.33
forward 52.34
68% range
49–55
−6.6% / +5.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 33.46 | −35.8% |
| 16% | 48.70 | −6.6% |
| 25% | 50.24 | −3.6% |
| 50% (median) | 52.37 | +0.4% |
| 75% | 54.20 | +4.0% |
| 84% | 55.16 | +5.8% |
| 95% | 57.94 | +11.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (54.74) | 19% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (57.35) | 6.2% |
| Down 5% or more (49.53) | 20% |
| Down 10% or more (46.92) | 11% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 11%, 2.8× the 4.0% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.