MCD
McDonald's CorporationPre-market235.65+0.42 +0.18%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 237.05 +0.56%
Open
235.23
Prev close
235.23
Day range
232.50236.14
52-week range
229.20341.75
Volume
4.30M0.83×
Mkt cap
166.76B
P/E ttm
19.17
Fwd P/E
17.12
EPS ttm
12.29
Div yield
3.28%
Earnings
Nov 4, 2026
From 52w high
−31.05%
MCD market-implied price distribution
MCD Price at Expiry
26 OTM quotes · ATM IV 25.6%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 235.65
Expected price
236.37
forward 236.25
68% range
220–252
−6.5% / +7.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 207.89 | −11.8% |
| 16% | 220.38 | −6.5% |
| 25% | 225.51 | −4.3% |
| 50% (median) | 235.71 | +0.0% |
| 75% | 246.38 | +4.6% |
| 84% | 252.13 | +7.0% |
| 95% | 267.54 | +13.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (247.43) | 23% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (259.22) | 9.1% |
| Down 5% or more (223.87) | 22% |
| Down 10% or more (212.09) | 7.3% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 7.3%, 0.9× the 8.1% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.