MAT
Mattel, Inc.Pre-market16.76+0.07 +0.42%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
17.00
Prev close
16.69
Day range
16.7217.04
52-week range
12.4022.48
Volume
6.54M1.17×
Mkt cap
4.79B
P/E ttm
12.41
Fwd P/E
10.60
EPS ttm
1.35
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−25.44%
MAT market-implied price distribution
MAT Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 52.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 16.76
Expected price
16.92
forward 16.88
68% range
14–19
−14.4% / +15.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 12.04 | −28.1% |
| 16% | 14.35 | −14.4% |
| 25% | 15.14 | −9.7% |
| 50% (median) | 16.67 | −0.5% |
| 75% | 18.34 | +9.4% |
| 84% | 19.32 | +15.3% |
| 95% | 22.65 | +35.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (17.60) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (18.44) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (15.92) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (15.08) | 24% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 24%, 0.9× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.