Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
3.23
−73.3%
16%
6.20
−48.7%
25%
9.19
−24.0%
50% (median)
11.79
−2.4%
75%
13.96
+15.5%
84%
15.24
+26.1%
95%
19.78
+63.7%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (12.69)
39%
Up 10% or more (13.29)
32%
Down 5% or more (11.48)
46%
Down 10% or more (10.87)
39%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 39%, 0.9× the 44% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.