MA
Mastercard IncorporatedPre-market595.09+5.95 +1.01%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 600.00 +0.83%
Open
592.86
Prev close
589.14
Day range
590.21598.92
52-week range
464.52601.23
Volume
2.91M1.02×
Mkt cap
521.30B
P/E ttm
33.06
Fwd P/E
25.83
EPS ttm
18.00
Div yield
0.58%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−1.02%
MA market-implied price distribution
MA Price at Expiry
26 OTM quotes · ATM IV 20.0%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
37%
spot 595.09
Expected price
586.15
forward 586.14
68% range
543–638
−8.8% / +7.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 493.69 | −17.0% |
| 16% | 542.93 | −8.8% |
| 25% | 556.89 | −6.4% |
| 50% (median) | 581.73 | −2.2% |
| 75% | 612.08 | +2.9% |
| 84% | 638.10 | +7.2% |
| 95% | 684.23 | +15.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (624.84) | 19% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (654.60) | 11% |
| Down 5% or more (565.34) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (535.58) | 13% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 13%, 2.0× the 6.6% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.