M
Macy's IncOpen23.07+0.08 +0.33%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 20m delay
Open
23.22
Prev close
22.99
Day range
22.8923.53
52-week range
16.6926.59
Volume
793.82K0.14×
Mkt cap
6.02B
P/E ttm
8.45
Fwd P/E
9.65
EPS ttm
2.73
Div yield
3.33%
Earnings
Sep 10, 2026
From 52w high
−13.26%
M market-implied price distribution
M Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 42.2%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 23.07
Expected price
22.92
forward 23.27
68% range
20–26
−13.3% / +12.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 16.42 | −28.8% |
| 16% | 20.01 | −13.3% |
| 25% | 21.32 | −7.6% |
| 50% (median) | 23.14 | +0.3% |
| 75% | 24.82 | +7.6% |
| 84% | 25.94 | +12.5% |
| 95% | 28.33 | +22.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (24.22) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (25.37) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (21.91) | 32% |
| Down 10% or more (20.76) | 20% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 20%, 1.0× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.