Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
71.99
−40.1%
16%
95.40
−20.6%
25%
103.69
−13.7%
50% (median)
119.63
−0.4%
75%
136.23
+13.4%
84%
145.33
+21.0%
95%
170.88
+42.2%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (126.15)
39%
Up 10% or more (132.15)
30%
Down 5% or more (114.13)
41%
Down 10% or more (108.13)
31%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 0.9× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.