LPX
Louisiana-Pacific CorporationOpen66.09+0.16 +0.24%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 11:47 ET · 20m delay
Open
66.64
Prev close
65.93
Day range
65.8067.14
52-week range
62.18100.34
Volume
331.26K0.29×
Mkt cap
4.62B
P/E ttm
85.83
Fwd P/E
22.63
EPS ttm
0.7700
Div yield
1.82%
Earnings
Nov 3, 2026
From 52w high
−34.13%
LPX market-implied price distribution
LPX Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
52%
spot 66.09
Expected price
66.79
forward 66.91
68% range
58–75
−12.8% / +13.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 45.94 | −30.5% |
| 16% | 57.64 | −12.8% |
| 25% | 60.79 | −8.0% |
| 50% (median) | 66.44 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 72.13 | +9.1% |
| 84% | 75.27 | +13.9% |
| 95% | 84.58 | +28.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (69.39) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (72.70) | 23% |
| Down 5% or more (62.79) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (59.48) | 21% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 21%, 0.9× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.