LION
Lionsgate Studios CorpOpen11.13+0.05 +0.45%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
11.08
Prev close
11.08
Day range
10.9811.26
52-week range
5.8816.70
Volume
1.00M0.37×
Mkt cap
3.31B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
22.82
EPS ttm
-0.4200
Div yield
—
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−33.35%
LION market-implied price distribution
LION Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 71.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
51%
spot 11.13
Expected price
11.82
forward 11.21
68% range
9–13
−18.4% / +18.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 7.69 | −30.9% |
| 16% | 9.09 | −18.4% |
| 25% | 9.91 | −11.0% |
| 50% (median) | 11.15 | +0.2% |
| 75% | 12.31 | +10.6% |
| 84% | 13.23 | +18.9% |
| 95% | 19.93 | +79.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (11.69) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (12.24) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (10.57) | 35% |
| Down 10% or more (10.02) | 25% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 0.7× the 36% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.