LI
Li Auto Inc.Open11.75+0.35 +3.07%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 15:50 ET · 15m delay
Open
11.49
Prev close
11.40
Day range
11.4911.79
52-week range
10.6623.15
Volume
3.34M1.06×
Mkt cap
11.48B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
21.16
EPS ttm
-0.6500
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 26, 2026
From 52w high
−49.24%
LI market-implied price distribution
LI Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.0%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 11.75
Expected price
11.81
forward 11.79
68% range
10–13
−11.7% / +12.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.14 | −30.7% |
| 16% | 10.37 | −11.7% |
| 25% | 10.86 | −7.6% |
| 50% (median) | 11.66 | −0.8% |
| 75% | 12.54 | +6.7% |
| 84% | 13.17 | +12.1% |
| 95% | 15.90 | +35.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (12.34) | 29% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (12.93) | 19% |
| Down 5% or more (11.16) | 33% |
| Down 10% or more (10.58) | 19% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 19%, 0.9× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.