LGN
Legence Corp.After hours47.81−0.91 −1.87%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 47.81 0.00%
Open
47.52
Prev close
48.72
Day range
46.0248.40
52-week range
30.75107.24
Volume
1.02M0.90×
Mkt cap
7.85B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
19.31
EPS ttm
-0.8000
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−55.42%
LGN market-implied price distribution
LGN Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 71.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 47.81
Expected price
48.64
forward 48.39
68% range
37–59
−23.0% / +22.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 28.04 | −41.4% |
| 16% | 36.83 | −23.0% |
| 25% | 40.25 | −15.8% |
| 50% (median) | 46.89 | −1.9% |
| 75% | 54.31 | +13.6% |
| 84% | 58.76 | +22.9% |
| 95% | 74.47 | +55.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (50.20) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (52.59) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (45.42) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (43.03) | 35% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 35%, 1.0× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.