LEA
Lear CorporationOpen119.88+2.63 +2.24%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:50 ET · 20m delay
Open
118.00
Prev close
117.25
Day range
117.06120.23
52-week range
96.04150.33
Volume
129.60K0.20×
Mkt cap
5.91B
P/E ttm
11.16
Fwd P/E
7.20
EPS ttm
10.74
Div yield
2.63%
Earnings
Oct 30, 2026
From 52w high
−20.26%
LEA market-implied price distribution
LEA Price at Expiry
26 OTM quotes · ATM IV 23.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
73%
spot 119.88
Expected price
125.67
forward 124.85
68% range
116–135
−3.3% / +12.7%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 106.67 | −11.0% |
| 16% | 115.94 | −3.3% |
| 25% | 119.40 | −0.4% |
| 50% (median) | 125.62 | +4.8% |
| 75% | 131.74 | +9.9% |
| 84% | 135.12 | +12.7% |
| 95% | 144.52 | +20.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (125.87) | 49% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (131.87) | 25% |
| Down 5% or more (113.89) | 12% |
| Down 10% or more (107.89) | 5.8% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 5.8%, 1.9× the 3.0% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.