LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.Open3.38−0.06 −1.75%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 14:52 ET · 15m delay
Open
3.40
Prev close
3.44
Day range
3.323.43
52-week range
2.3722.42
Volume
6.35M0.41×
Mkt cap
1.33B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-0.66
EPS ttm
-13.71
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 9, 2026
From 52w high
−84.95%
LCID market-implied price distribution
LCID Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 111.0%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
42%
spot 3.38
Expected price
3.36
forward 3.32
68% range
2–4
−33.9% / +26.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 1.77 | −47.7% |
| 16% | 2.23 | −33.9% |
| 25% | 2.57 | −23.7% |
| 50% (median) | 3.19 | −5.4% |
| 75% | 3.87 | +14.7% |
| 84% | 4.27 | +26.6% |
| 95% | 5.72 | +69.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (3.54) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (3.71) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (3.21) | 51% |
| Down 10% or more (3.04) | 43% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 43%, 1.0× the 45% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.