LBRT
Liberty Energy Inc.Open18.68−0.30 −1.59%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET · 20m delay
Open
19.02
Prev close
18.98
Day range
18.6819.19
52-week range
11.5234.48
Volume
182.95K0.04×
Mkt cap
3.05B
P/E ttm
25.24
Fwd P/E
59.76
EPS ttm
0.7400
Div yield
1.90%
Earnings
Oct 21, 2026
From 52w high
−45.82%
LBRT market-implied price distribution
LBRT Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 66.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 18.68
Expected price
19.04
forward 19.05
68% range
15–23
−19.6% / +22.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 11.52 | −38.3% |
| 16% | 15.02 | −19.6% |
| 25% | 16.27 | −12.9% |
| 50% (median) | 18.68 | +0.0% |
| 75% | 21.29 | +14.0% |
| 84% | 22.81 | +22.1% |
| 95% | 28.09 | +50.4% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (19.61) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (20.55) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (17.74) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (16.81) | 30% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 30%, 0.9× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.