LAD
Lithia Motors, Inc.Pre-market286.45−3.79 −1.31%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
289.77
Prev close
290.24
Day range
286.00293.53
52-week range
239.78439.49
Volume
264.91K0.88×
Mkt cap
6.30B
P/E ttm
9.49
Fwd P/E
6.88
EPS ttm
30.19
Div yield
0.98%
Earnings
Oct 21, 2026
From 52w high
−34.82%
LAD market-implied price distribution
LAD Price at Expiry
39 OTM quotes · ATM IV 39.9%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
68%
spot 286.45
Expected price
307.74
forward 296.54
68% range
269–334
−6.0% / +16.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 241.34 | −15.7% |
| 16% | 269.17 | −6.0% |
| 25% | 279.96 | −2.3% |
| 50% (median) | 300.03 | +4.7% |
| 75% | 321.00 | +12.1% |
| 84% | 333.82 | +16.5% |
| 95% | 402.36 | +40.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (300.77) | 49% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (315.10) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (272.13) | 18% |
| Down 10% or more (257.81) | 9.9% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 9.9%, 0.6× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.