KOS
Kosmos Energy Ltd.Open2.81+0.09 +3.13%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 11:22 ET · 20m delay
Open
2.75
Prev close
2.72
Day range
2.722.82
52-week range
0.84003.34
Volume
1.82M0.14×
Mkt cap
1.67B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
8.71
EPS ttm
-1.12
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 2, 2026
From 52w high
−16.02%
KOS market-implied price distribution
KOS Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 72.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 2.81
Expected price
2.80
forward 2.78
68% range
2–3
−25.4% / +18.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 1.68 | −40.2% |
| 16% | 2.09 | −25.4% |
| 25% | 2.32 | −17.1% |
| 50% (median) | 2.71 | −3.4% |
| 75% | 3.10 | +10.5% |
| 84% | 3.33 | +18.8% |
| 95% | 4.23 | +50.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (2.95) | 34% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (3.09) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (2.66) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (2.52) | 37% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 37%, 1.0× the 38% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.