JD
JD.com, Inc.Open26.73+0.01 +0.02%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 10:19 ET · 15m delay
Open
26.67
Prev close
26.72
Day range
26.5626.82
52-week range
24.5135.06
Volume
2.03M0.27×
Mkt cap
36.09B
P/E ttm
18.69
Fwd P/E
6.45
EPS ttm
1.43
Div yield
3.74%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−23.77%
JD market-implied price distribution
JD Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 33.6%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
48%
spot 26.73
Expected price
26.79
forward 26.73
68% range
24–29
−11.5% / +9.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 21.12 | −21.0% |
| 16% | 23.67 | −11.5% |
| 25% | 24.93 | −6.7% |
| 50% (median) | 26.63 | −0.4% |
| 75% | 28.25 | +5.7% |
| 84% | 29.28 | +9.5% |
| 95% | 34.09 | +27.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (28.07) | 27% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (29.40) | 15% |
| Down 5% or more (25.39) | 30% |
| Down 10% or more (24.06) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.2× the 15% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.