JACK
Jack In The Box Inc.Pre-market12.37+0.19 +1.56%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
12.18
Prev close
12.18
Day range
11.9812.43
52-week range
8.9223.86
Volume
446.57K0.66×
Mkt cap
237.25M
P/E ttm
4.45
Fwd P/E
3.89
EPS ttm
2.78
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 12, 2026
From 52w high
−48.16%
JACK market-implied price distribution
JACK Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 74.0%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 12.37
Expected price
12.36
forward 12.37
68% range
9–15
−23.4% / +22.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 7.37 | −40.4% |
| 16% | 9.47 | −23.4% |
| 25% | 10.32 | −16.6% |
| 50% (median) | 12.09 | −2.3% |
| 75% | 14.04 | +13.5% |
| 84% | 15.11 | +22.1% |
| 95% | 17.94 | +45.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (12.99) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (13.61) | 30% |
| Down 5% or more (11.75) | 45% |
| Down 10% or more (11.13) | 36% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 36%, 1.0× the 37% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.