Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
114.07
−18.2%
16%
125.01
−10.3%
25%
130.03
−6.7%
50% (median)
139.40
−0.0%
75%
148.74
+6.7%
84%
153.65
+10.2%
95%
166.60
+19.5%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (146.40)
30%
Up 10% or more (153.37)
16%
Down 5% or more (132.46)
31%
Down 10% or more (125.49)
17%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 1.0× the 16% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.