IYR
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETFClosed95.93−0.69 −0.71%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ETAfter hours 95.93 0.00%
Open
96.45
Prev close
96.62
Day range
95.5596.70
52-week range
92.45108.17
Volume
6.82M1.24×
P/E ttm
25.83
EPS ttm
3.71
Div yield
2.51%
From 52w high
−11.32%
IYR market-implied price distribution
IYR Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 22.2%
Days to expiry
30
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
71%
spot 95.93
Expected price
96.25
forward 96.25
68% range
89–100
−7.7% / +4.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 85.33 | −11.0% |
| 16% | 88.52 | −7.7% |
| 25% | 91.43 | −4.7% |
| 50% (median) | 99.50 | +3.7% |
| 75% | 99.75 | +4.0% |
| 84% | 99.81 | +4.0% |
| 95% | 99.96 | +4.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (100.73) | 2.2% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (105.52) | 0.0% |
| Down 5% or more (91.13) | 25% |
| Down 10% or more (86.34) | 6.9% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 6.9%, 1.5× the 4.6% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.