IVR
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INCOpen5.57−0.07 −1.33%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET · 20m delay
Open
5.70
Prev close
5.64
Day range
5.495.75
52-week range
5.499.50
Volume
2.40M0.79×
Mkt cap
606.59M
P/E ttm
3.59
Fwd P/E
3.21
EPS ttm
1.55
Div yield
25.53%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−41.42%
IVR market-implied price distribution
IVR Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 37.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 5.57
Expected price
5.55
forward 5.51
68% range
5–6
−9.1% / +8.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 4.35 | −21.8% |
| 16% | 5.06 | −9.1% |
| 25% | 5.25 | −5.6% |
| 50% (median) | 5.57 | +0.1% |
| 75% | 5.86 | +5.2% |
| 84% | 6.01 | +8.0% |
| 95% | 6.47 | +16.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (5.84) | 26% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (6.12) | 12% |
| Down 5% or more (5.29) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (5.01) | 14% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 14%, 0.6× the 24% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.