ITOT
iShares Core S&P Total U.S. StoClosed167.37−1.97 −1.16%USD
NYSEArca · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ETAfter hours 166.90 −0.28%
Open
168.57
Prev close
169.34
Day range
166.80168.90
52-week range
137.73171.03
Volume
1.99M1.31×
P/E ttm
23.80
EPS ttm
7.03
Div yield
1.01%
From 52w high
−2.14%
ITOT market-implied price distribution
ITOT Price at Expiry
12 OTM quotes · ATM IV 14.2%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
61%
spot 167.37
Expected price
167.47
forward 168.49
68% range
158–175
−5.4% / +4.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 149.65 | −10.6% |
| 16% | 158.28 | −5.4% |
| 25% | 163.66 | −2.2% |
| 50% (median) | 169.32 | +1.2% |
| 75% | 173.21 | +3.5% |
| 84% | 174.94 | +4.5% |
| 95% | 179.00 | +6.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (175.74) | 13% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (184.11) | 1.2% |
| Down 5% or more (159.00) | 17% |
| Down 10% or more (150.63) | 6.0% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 6.0%, 8.6× the 0.7% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.