IRON
Disc Medicine, Inc.After hours56.60−3.88 −6.42%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 56.60 0.00%
Open
60.16
Prev close
60.48
Day range
56.4760.48
52-week range
40.0099.50
Volume
594.32K1.24×
Mkt cap
2.17B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-7.99
EPS ttm
-6.58
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−43.12%
IRON market-implied price distribution
IRON Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 175.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 56.60
Expected price
56.62
forward 58.32
68% range
20–83
−65.4% / +47.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 11.36 | −79.9% |
| 16% | 19.58 | −65.4% |
| 25% | 32.59 | −42.4% |
| 50% (median) | 52.50 | −7.2% |
| 75% | 72.05 | +27.3% |
| 84% | 83.40 | +47.3% |
| 95% | 123.88 | +118.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (59.43) | 40% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (62.26) | 36% |
| Down 5% or more (53.77) | 52% |
| Down 10% or more (50.94) | 48% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 48%, 0.9× the 52% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.