IRDM
Iridium Communications IncOpen46.94−0.13 −0.28%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 15m delay
Open
46.73
Prev close
47.07
Day range
46.4947.02
52-week range
15.6557.18
Volume
287.67K0.26×
Mkt cap
4.97B
P/E ttm
53.34
Fwd P/E
27.37
EPS ttm
0.8800
Div yield
1.27%
Earnings
Jul 22, 2026
From 52w high
−17.91%
IRDM market-implied price distribution
IRDM Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 35.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
44%
spot 46.94
Expected price
47.29
forward 47.01
68% range
42–52
−10.5% / +10.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 39.45 | −15.9% |
| 16% | 42.02 | −10.5% |
| 25% | 43.29 | −7.8% |
| 50% (median) | 46.22 | −1.5% |
| 75% | 49.85 | +6.2% |
| 84% | 52.05 | +10.9% |
| 95% | 58.95 | +25.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (49.29) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (51.63) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (44.59) | 36% |
| Down 10% or more (42.25) | 17% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 17%, 0.9× the 19% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.