IP
International Paper CompanyOpen31.65−0.09 −0.28%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 11:22 ET · 20m delay
Open
32.09
Prev close
31.74
Day range
31.5632.30
52-week range
29.2650.25
Volume
431.24K0.09×
Mkt cap
16.76B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
10.37
EPS ttm
-5.23
Div yield
5.83%
Earnings
Oct 28, 2026
From 52w high
−37.01%
IP market-implied price distribution
IP Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 44.4%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 31.65
Expected price
31.64
forward 31.76
68% range
28–36
−13.0% / +12.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 23.18 | −26.8% |
| 16% | 27.52 | −13.0% |
| 25% | 28.99 | −8.4% |
| 50% (median) | 31.60 | −0.1% |
| 75% | 34.25 | +8.2% |
| 84% | 35.74 | +12.9% |
| 95% | 39.79 | +25.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (33.23) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (34.82) | 21% |
| Down 5% or more (30.07) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (28.49) | 21% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 21%, 1.0× the 22% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.