IOVA
Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.Open14.76+0.19 +1.34%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 13:45 ET · 15m delay
Open
14.48
Prev close
14.56
Day range
14.3214.79
52-week range
1.7615.30
Volume
5.07M0.28×
Mkt cap
6.68B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-75.38
EPS ttm
-0.6900
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−3.56%
IOVA market-implied price distribution
IOVA Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 152.8%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 14.76
Expected price
14.54
forward 14.54
68% range
10–19
−33.3% / +26.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.04 | −45.5% |
| 16% | 9.84 | −33.3% |
| 25% | 10.34 | −29.9% |
| 50% (median) | 14.11 | −4.4% |
| 75% | 17.98 | +21.8% |
| 84% | 18.71 | +26.8% |
| 95% | 22.72 | +54.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (15.49) | 43% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (16.23) | 39% |
| Down 5% or more (14.02) | 50% |
| Down 10% or more (13.28) | 45% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 45%, 0.9× the 51% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.