IONS
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Open43.03−0.64 −1.47%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 10:18 ET · 15m delay
Open
43.55
Prev close
43.67
Day range
42.8443.58
52-week range
42.6386.74
Volume
165.66K0.05×
Mkt cap
7.15B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-38.69
EPS ttm
-3.48
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Jul 29, 2026
From 52w high
−50.39%
IONS market-implied price distribution
IONS Price at Expiry
16 OTM quotes · ATM IV 54.6%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 43.08
Expected price
44.05
forward 43.45
68% range
35–50
−18.0% / +15.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 28.87 | −33.0% |
| 16% | 35.30 | −18.0% |
| 25% | 38.11 | −11.5% |
| 50% (median) | 42.49 | −1.4% |
| 75% | 47.03 | +9.2% |
| 84% | 49.93 | +15.9% |
| 95% | 67.88 | +57.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (45.23) | 33% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (47.39) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (40.93) | 40% |
| Down 10% or more (38.77) | 28% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 28%, 1.0× the 29% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.