INIO
INNIO N.V.Pre-market18.61−1.18 −5.96%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
19.53
Prev close
19.79
Day range
18.4419.53
52-week range
17.4542.95
Volume
3.46M0.72×
Mkt cap
13.96B
P/E ttm
620.33
Fwd P/E
23.44
EPS ttm
0.0300
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Jul 28, 2026
From 52w high
−56.67%
INIO market-implied price distribution
INIO Price at Expiry
7 OTM quotes · ATM IV 75.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
56%
spot 18.61
Expected price
19.26
forward 19.64
68% range
13–24
−29.7% / +30.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 9.69 | −47.9% |
| 16% | 13.08 | −29.7% |
| 25% | 15.72 | −15.5% |
| 50% (median) | 19.37 | +4.1% |
| 75% | 22.56 | +21.2% |
| 84% | 24.22 | +30.1% |
| 95% | 29.02 | +56.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (19.54) | 49% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (20.47) | 41% |
| Down 5% or more (17.68) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (16.75) | 31% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 31%, 1.0× the 30% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.