INDA
Ishares MSCI India ETFPre-market47.24+0.88 +1.90%USD
Cboe US · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ETPre-market 47.24 +0.02%
Open
47.19
Prev close
46.36
Day range
47.1847.39
52-week range
45.2155.50
Volume
5.98M1.20×
P/E ttm
21.54
EPS ttm
2.19
Div yield
0.00%
From 52w high
−14.88%
INDA market-implied price distribution
INDA Price at Expiry
14 OTM quotes · ATM IV 16.6%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
55%
spot 47.24
Expected price
47.08
forward 47.36
68% range
45–50
−5.1% / +5.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 39.43 | −16.5% |
| 16% | 44.83 | −5.1% |
| 25% | 45.90 | −2.8% |
| 50% (median) | 47.52 | +0.6% |
| 75% | 48.91 | +3.5% |
| 84% | 49.60 | +5.0% |
| 95% | 51.49 | +9.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (49.60) | 16% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (51.96) | 4.0% |
| Down 5% or more (44.88) | 16% |
| Down 10% or more (42.52) | 8.4% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 8.4%, 3.7× the 2.3% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.