Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
18.95
−34.4%
16%
22.75
−21.3%
25%
24.97
−13.6%
50% (median)
29.47
+2.0%
75%
33.22
+15.0%
84%
35.83
+24.0%
95%
55.11
+90.7%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (30.35)
43%
Up 10% or more (31.79)
33%
Down 5% or more (27.46)
35%
Down 10% or more (26.01)
30%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 30%, 0.8× the 35% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.