Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
TGT
Target Price
PCTL
Percentiles
Chance below
Price
vs spot
5%
35.84
−30.7%
16%
43.42
−16.0%
25%
46.62
−9.8%
50% (median)
51.31
−0.8%
75%
56.09
+8.5%
84%
59.29
+14.7%
95%
74.04
+43.2%
MOVE
Move Odds
Up 5% or more (54.29)
33%
Up 10% or more (56.87)
22%
Down 5% or more (49.12)
37%
Down 10% or more (46.53)
25%
Options price a 10%+ drop at 25%, 1.0× the 25% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.