ILMN
Illumina, Inc.Pre-market276.67−1.50 −0.54%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 15m delayPre-market 276.00 −0.24%
Open
277.92
Prev close
278.17
Day range
268.52278.00
52-week range
88.00309.35
Volume
1.64M0.61×
Mkt cap
41.78B
P/E ttm
51.33
Fwd P/E
45.22
EPS ttm
5.39
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−10.56%
ILMN market-implied price distribution
ILMN Price at Expiry
31 OTM quotes · ATM IV 66.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
45%
spot 276.67
Expected price
275.59
forward 275.23
68% range
220–328
−20.4% / +18.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 182.07 | −34.2% |
| 16% | 220.26 | −20.4% |
| 25% | 236.45 | −14.5% |
| 50% (median) | 270.11 | −2.4% |
| 75% | 307.39 | +11.1% |
| 84% | 328.26 | +18.6% |
| 95% | 386.52 | +39.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (290.50) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (304.34) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (262.84) | 44% |
| Down 10% or more (249.00) | 34% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 34%, 0.9× the 36% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.