IFCN.SW
INFICON NOpenIFCN.SW discounted cash flow valuation
IFCN.SW Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 44.3% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 12.39% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CHF 899.04M |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (51% of EV) | CHF 948.61M |
| Enterprise value | CHF 1.85B |
| + Cash & investments | CHF 150.54M |
| − Total debt | −CHF 87.49M |
| Equity value | CHF 1.91B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 24.45M |
| Value per share | CHF 78.16 |
| Market cap | CHF 4.71B |
USD statements converted at 0.8323 CHF.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 1.47 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 12.55% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 5.22% |
| Tax rate | 19.7% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 1.8% |
| WACC | 12.39% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.39% | 92.95 | 97.07 | 101.70 | 106.96 | 112.98 |
| 11.39% | 81.94 | 85.07 | 88.55 | 92.44 | 96.83 |
| 12.39% | 73.04 | 75.48 | 78.16 | 81.12 | 84.42 |
| 13.39% | 65.72 | 67.64 | 69.75 | 72.06 | 74.60 |
| 14.39% | 59.59 | 61.14 | 62.83 | 64.66 | 66.65 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2025) | — | CHF 56.42M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | CHF 70.53M | 0.890 | CHF 62.75M |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | CHF 88.16M | 0.792 | CHF 69.79M |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | CHF 110.20M | 0.704 | CHF 77.63M |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | CHF 137.75M | 0.627 | CHF 86.34M |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | CHF 172.19M | 0.558 | CHF 96.02M |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | CHF 207.49M | 0.496 | CHF 102.95M |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | CHF 240.69M | 0.441 | CHF 106.26M |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | CHF 268.37M | 0.393 | CHF 105.42M |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | CHF 287.15M | 0.350 | CHF 100.36M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CHF 294.33M | 0.311 | CHF 91.53M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.