ICOP
iShares Copper and Metals MininClosed53.69−0.72 −1.33%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 52.60 −2.03%
Open
54.10
Prev close
54.41
Day range
53.2254.10
52-week range
36.0860.93
Volume
48.50K0.45×
P/E ttm
17.37
EPS ttm
3.09
Div yield
1.68%
From 52w high
−11.88%
ICOP market-implied price distribution
ICOP Price at Expiry
13 OTM quotes · ATM IV 37.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
64%
spot 53.69
Expected price
55.38
forward 54.54
68% range
47–63
−12.5% / +17.1%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 31.29 | −41.7% |
| 16% | 46.97 | −12.5% |
| 25% | 51.27 | −4.5% |
| 50% (median) | 55.82 | +4.0% |
| 75% | 59.87 | +11.5% |
| 84% | 62.86 | +17.1% |
| 95% | 77.84 | +45.0% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (56.37) | 46% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (59.06) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (51.00) | 24% |
| Down 10% or more (48.32) | 18% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 18%, 1.0× the 17% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.