ICLR
ICON plcOpen164.62+0.22 +0.13%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 14:52 ET · 15m delay
Open
164.54
Prev close
164.40
Day range
159.72166.17
52-week range
66.57203.91
Volume
488.02K0.58×
Mkt cap
12.70B
P/E ttm
173.28
Fwd P/E
13.95
EPS ttm
0.9500
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Oct 27, 2026
From 52w high
−19.27%
ICLR market-implied price distribution
ICLR Price at Expiry
15 OTM quotes · ATM IV 57.1%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 164.62
Expected price
164.89
forward 165.44
68% range
134–195
−18.5% / +18.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 115.93 | −29.6% |
| 16% | 134.24 | −18.5% |
| 25% | 144.23 | −12.4% |
| 50% (median) | 164.52 | −0.1% |
| 75% | 184.76 | +12.2% |
| 84% | 194.59 | +18.2% |
| 95% | 215.19 | +30.7% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (172.85) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (181.08) | 29% |
| Down 5% or more (156.39) | 39% |
| Down 10% or more (148.16) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 1.0× the 31% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.