ICICIGI.NS
ICICI LOMBARD GIC LIMITEDClosedICICIGI.NS discounted cash flow valuation
ICICI LOMBARD GIC LIMITED is a insurance - diversified company. Its cash flows include lending and deposits, so free cash flow isn't owner earnings and this model can mislead. Compare it with peers on book value and earnings instead.
ICICIGI.NS Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies 13.3% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 18.6% in this model.
Model: 18.6% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.83% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | INR 368.65B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (68% of EV) | INR 771.59B |
| Enterprise value | INR 1.14T |
| + Cash & investments | INR 7.76B |
| − Total debt | INR 0 |
| Equity value | INR 1.15T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 499.65M |
| Value per share | INR 2,297.63 |
| Market cap | INR 855.90B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.33% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.83% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 6.83% |
| Tax rate | 24.2% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 0.0% |
| WACC | 7.83% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.83% | 3,041.27 | 3,380.47 | 3,821.47 | 4,418.20 | 5,270.93 |
| 6.83% | 2,421.43 | 2,627.87 | 2,881.93 | 3,202.26 | 3,618.71 |
| 7.83% | 1,999.84 | 2,135.98 | 2,297.63 | 2,492.69 | 2,732.76 |
| 8.83% | 1,695.21 | 1,790.15 | 1,900.05 | 2,028.78 | 2,181.61 |
| 9.83% | 1,465.31 | 1,534.30 | 1,612.66 | 1,702.48 | 1,806.45 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | INR 23.79B | — | — |
| Year 1 | 18.6% | INR 28.21B | 0.927 | INR 26.16B |
| Year 2 | 18.6% | INR 33.46B | 0.860 | INR 28.78B |
| Year 3 | 18.6% | INR 39.68B | 0.798 | INR 31.65B |
| Year 4 | 18.6% | INR 47.06B | 0.740 | INR 34.81B |
| Year 5 | 18.6% | INR 55.81B | 0.686 | INR 38.29B |
| Year 6 | 15.4% | INR 64.40B | 0.636 | INR 40.97B |
| Year 7 | 12.2% | INR 72.23B | 0.590 | INR 42.61B |
| Year 8 | 8.9% | INR 78.69B | 0.547 | INR 43.05B |
| Year 9 | 5.7% | INR 83.19B | 0.507 | INR 42.21B |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | INR 85.27B | 0.471 | INR 40.12B |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.