IBTA
Ibotta, Inc.After hours44.42+1.14 +2.63%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ET · 20m delayAfter hours 44.42 −0.29%
Open
43.33
Prev close
43.28
Day range
43.1445.24
52-week range
19.1045.24
Volume
448.55K1.84×
Mkt cap
1.03B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
23.59
EPS ttm
-0.4700
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 2, 2026
From 52w high
−1.80%
IBTA market-implied price distribution
IBTA Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 104.6%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 44.42
Expected price
44.29
forward 44.60
68% range
30–58
−32.7% / +29.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 20.84 | −53.1% |
| 16% | 29.91 | −32.7% |
| 25% | 34.18 | −23.1% |
| 50% (median) | 43.30 | −2.5% |
| 75% | 53.15 | +19.7% |
| 84% | 57.67 | +29.8% |
| 95% | 70.58 | +58.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (46.64) | 41% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (48.86) | 35% |
| Down 5% or more (42.20) | 47% |
| Down 10% or more (39.98) | 40% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 40%, 0.9× the 44% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.