IBP
Installed Building Products, InOpen185.02−0.43 −0.23%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 10:14 ET · 20m delay
Open
187.48
Prev close
185.44
Day range
184.27188.49
52-week range
178.54349.00
Volume
18.42K0.05×
Mkt cap
4.92B
P/E ttm
19.96
Fwd P/E
16.73
EPS ttm
9.27
Div yield
0.84%
Earnings
Aug 6, 2026
From 52w high
−46.99%
IBP market-implied price distribution
IBP Price at Expiry
11 OTM quotes · ATM IV 57.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 185.02
Expected price
185.77
forward 185.80
68% range
153–216
−17.1% / +17.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 130.91 | −29.2% |
| 16% | 153.32 | −17.1% |
| 25% | 162.92 | −11.9% |
| 50% (median) | 182.88 | −1.2% |
| 75% | 204.66 | +10.6% |
| 84% | 216.49 | +17.0% |
| 95% | 246.94 | +33.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (194.27) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (203.52) | 26% |
| Down 5% or more (175.76) | 41% |
| Down 10% or more (166.51) | 29% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 29%, 0.9× the 31% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.