HYDR
Global X Hydrogen ETFClosed40.87+0.37 +0.92%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delay
Open
40.17
Prev close
40.50
Day range
40.0941.00
52-week range
31.6974.80
Volume
20.05K0.46×
Div yield
2.99%
From 52w high
−45.36%
HYDR market-implied price distribution
HYDR Price at Expiry
9 OTM quotes · ATM IV 84.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 40.87
Expected price
43.52
forward 43.47
68% range
34–59
−17.9% / +43.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 28.60 | −30.0% |
| 16% | 33.54 | −17.9% |
| 25% | 36.30 | −11.2% |
| 50% (median) | 40.85 | −0.0% |
| 75% | 41.14 | +0.7% |
| 84% | 58.79 | +43.8% |
| 95% | 72.42 | +77.2% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (42.91) | 17% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (44.96) | 17% |
| Down 5% or more (38.83) | 34% |
| Down 10% or more (36.78) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 0.8× the 32% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.