HTZ
Hertz Global Holdings, IncOpen1.95+0.10 +5.40%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 13:44 ET · 15m delay
Open
1.85
Prev close
1.85
Day range
1.811.97
52-week range
1.458.18
Volume
9.66M0.34×
Mkt cap
695.04M
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-15.09
EPS ttm
-1.09
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Nov 5, 2026
From 52w high
−76.16%
HTZ market-implied price distribution
HTZ Price at Expiry
6 OTM quotes · ATM IV 124.5%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 1.95
Expected price
1.92
forward 1.93
68% range
1–3
−39.8% / +29.6%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 0.7514 | −61.5% |
| 16% | 1.17 | −39.8% |
| 25% | 1.42 | −27.0% |
| 50% (median) | 1.84 | −5.6% |
| 75% | 2.27 | +16.5% |
| 84% | 2.53 | +29.6% |
| 95% | 3.48 | +78.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (2.05) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (2.14) | 31% |
| Down 5% or more (1.85) | 51% |
| Down 10% or more (1.75) | 44% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 44%, 0.9× the 47% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.