HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.Pre-market16.54+0.03 +0.18%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
16.55
Prev close
16.51
Day range
16.3916.59
52-week range
13.7019.13
Volume
758.38K0.52×
Mkt cap
3.10B
P/E ttm
8.23
Fwd P/E
8.41
EPS ttm
2.01
Div yield
11.37%
Earnings
Jul 30, 2026
From 52w high
−13.54%
HTGC market-implied price distribution
HTGC Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 22.2%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
40%
spot 16.54
Expected price
16.06
forward 16.30
68% range
15–17
−8.0% / +4.3%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 13.07 | −21.0% |
| 16% | 15.21 | −8.0% |
| 25% | 15.64 | −5.5% |
| 50% (median) | 16.32 | −1.3% |
| 75% | 16.93 | +2.4% |
| 84% | 17.25 | +4.3% |
| 95% | 18.02 | +8.9% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (17.37) | 13% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (18.19) | 3.9% |
| Down 5% or more (15.71) | 27% |
| Down 10% or more (14.89) | 12% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 12%, 1.1× the 11% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.