HTFL
Heartflow, Inc.Open50.52−0.04 −0.08%USD
NasdaqGS · as of Oct 13, 13:42 ET · 15m delay
Open
50.84
Prev close
50.56
Day range
49.9151.53
52-week range
20.1354.32
Volume
628.18K0.35×
Mkt cap
4.39B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
-196.27
EPS ttm
-0.2400
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 13, 2026
From 52w high
−7.00%
HTFL market-implied price distribution
HTFL Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 89.5%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
47%
spot 50.52
Expected price
50.53
forward 50.90
68% range
36–64
−29.5% / +26.9%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 27.83 | −44.9% |
| 16% | 35.61 | −29.5% |
| 25% | 40.38 | −20.1% |
| 50% (median) | 49.44 | −2.1% |
| 75% | 58.91 | +16.6% |
| 84% | 64.12 | +26.9% |
| 95% | 78.09 | +54.6% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (53.05) | 39% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (55.57) | 33% |
| Down 5% or more (47.99) | 46% |
| Down 10% or more (45.47) | 38% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 38%, 0.9× the 40% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.