HRMY
Harmony Biosciences Holdings, IAfter hours37.03−1.20 −3.14%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 13, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 37.74 +1.92%
Open
37.91
Prev close
38.23
Day range
36.0038.17
52-week range
25.5243.49
Volume
1.42M1.58×
Mkt cap
2.16B
P/E ttm
11.95
Fwd P/E
5.29
EPS ttm
3.10
Div yield
0.00%
Earnings
Aug 4, 2026
From 52w high
−14.85%
HRMY market-implied price distribution
HRMY Price at Expiry
10 OTM quotes · ATM IV 63.8%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
46%
spot 37.03
Expected price
39.14
forward 37.78
68% range
31–45
−16.2% / +21.5%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 27.39 | −26.0% |
| 16% | 31.03 | −16.2% |
| 25% | 32.94 | −11.1% |
| 50% (median) | 36.48 | −1.5% |
| 75% | 41.32 | +11.6% |
| 84% | 45.00 | +21.5% |
| 95% | 64.73 | +74.8% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (38.88) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (40.73) | 27% |
| Down 5% or more (35.18) | 41% |
| Down 10% or more (33.33) | 28% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 28%, 0.9× the 31% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.