HP
Helmerich & Payne, Inc.Open38.87+0.15 +0.39%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 13, 14:51 ET · 20m delay
Open
39.05
Prev close
38.72
Day range
38.3239.46
52-week range
22.1948.17
Volume
391.82K0.33×
Mkt cap
3.88B
P/E ttm
—
Fwd P/E
24.75
EPS ttm
-1.39
Div yield
2.58%
Earnings
Aug 5, 2026
From 52w high
−19.31%
HP market-implied price distribution
HP Price at Expiry
8 OTM quotes · ATM IV 48.4%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
49%
spot 38.87
Expected price
39.29
forward 38.87
68% range
32–45
−16.9% / +14.8%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 28.47 | −26.7% |
| 16% | 32.31 | −16.9% |
| 25% | 34.43 | −11.4% |
| 50% (median) | 38.78 | −0.2% |
| 75% | 42.49 | +9.3% |
| 84% | 44.63 | +14.8% |
| 95% | 55.33 | +42.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (40.81) | 35% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (42.76) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (36.93) | 37% |
| Down 10% or more (34.98) | 27% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 27%, 1.0× the 28% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.