HOOG
Leverage Shares 2X Long HOOD DaClosed25.47−5.33 −17.31%USD
NasdaqGM · as of Oct 14, 16:00 ET · 15m delayAfter hours 24.43 −4.08%
Open
28.67
Prev close
30.80
Day range
25.1829.77
52-week range
14.43121.00
Volume
578.93K1.51×
Div yield
20.78%
From 52w high
−78.95%
HOOG market-implied price distribution
HOOG Price at Expiry
25 OTM quotes · ATM IV 127.5%
Days to expiry
37
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
43%
spot 25.47
Expected price
25.23
forward 25.50
68% range
14–34
−44.4% / +33.0%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 8.25 | −67.6% |
| 16% | 14.15 | −44.4% |
| 25% | 18.03 | −29.2% |
| 50% (median) | 23.96 | −5.9% |
| 75% | 30.07 | +18.1% |
| 84% | 33.88 | +33.0% |
| 95% | 48.97 | +92.3% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (26.74) | 37% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (28.02) | 32% |
| Down 5% or more (24.20) | 51% |
| Down 10% or more (22.92) | 45% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 45%, 0.9× the 48% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.