HII
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Pre-market264.03−0.77 −0.29%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delay
Open
265.55
Prev close
264.80
Day range
263.80268.41
52-week range
256.79460.00
Volume
335.27K0.67×
Mkt cap
10.40B
P/E ttm
15.69
Fwd P/E
12.60
EPS ttm
16.83
Div yield
2.09%
Earnings
Oct 29, 2026
From 52w high
−42.60%
HII market-implied price distribution
HII Price at Expiry
19 OTM quotes · ATM IV 43.0%
Days to expiry
38
Fri, Nov 20, 2026
P(finish above spot)
50%
spot 264.03
Expected price
265.93
forward 265.96
68% range
229–302
−13.1% / +14.4%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 203.68 | −22.9% |
| 16% | 229.47 | −13.1% |
| 25% | 240.90 | −8.8% |
| 50% (median) | 264.41 | +0.1% |
| 75% | 289.15 | +9.5% |
| 84% | 302.12 | +14.4% |
| 95% | 334.02 | +26.5% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (277.23) | 36% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (290.43) | 24% |
| Down 5% or more (250.83) | 35% |
| Down 10% or more (237.63) | 22% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 22%, 1.0× the 23% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.