HD
Home Depot, Inc. (The)Pre-market290.62−0.12 −0.04%USD
NYSE · as of Oct 12, 16:00 ET · 20m delayPre-market 293.80 +1.10%
Open
289.50
Prev close
290.74
Day range
288.51292.57
52-week range
277.15397.63
Volume
4.27M0.98×
Mkt cap
289.95B
P/E ttm
20.32
Fwd P/E
18.18
EPS ttm
14.30
Div yield
3.21%
Earnings
Nov 17, 2026
From 52w high
−26.91%
HD market-implied price distribution
HD Price at Expiry
29 OTM quotes · ATM IV 26.4%
Days to expiry
31
Fri, Nov 13, 2026
P(finish above spot)
53%
spot 290.62
Expected price
291.97
forward 292.36
68% range
270–314
−7.2% / +8.2%
Shaded band: the middle 68% of outcomes. Where the blue curve sits above the dashed one, options price that move as likelier than a plain bell curve would.
Target Price
Percentiles
| Chance below | Price | vs spot |
|---|---|---|
| 5% | 251.72 | −13.4% |
| 16% | 269.80 | −7.2% |
| 25% | 277.32 | −4.6% |
| 50% (median) | 292.11 | +0.5% |
| 75% | 306.88 | +5.6% |
| 84% | 314.34 | +8.2% |
| 95% | 331.67 | +14.1% |
Move Odds
| Up 5% or more (305.15) | 28% |
|---|---|
| Up 10% or more (319.68) | 11% |
| Down 5% or more (276.09) | 23% |
| Down 10% or more (261.56) | 9.4% |
Options price a 10%+ drop at 9.4%, 1.2× the 8.1% a bell curve with the same volatility gives.
Risk-neutral odds from option prices, the bot's lgf odds method: out-of-the-money mids → implied vols → a smoothed smile in total variance → density = erT·∂²C/∂K² (Breeden–Litzenberger). Risk-neutral odds include the market's risk premium, so they lean bearish compared with real-world odds. Not investment advice.