HCLTECH.NS
HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTDClosedHCLTECH.NS discounted cash flow valuation
HCLTECH.NS Fair Value
Reverse DCF: no growth rate between −50% and +100% a year matches today's price.
Model: 6.7% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth. Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.74% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | INR 163.08T |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (63% of EV) | INR 277.97T |
| Enterprise value | INR 441.05T |
| + Cash & investments | INR 231.86B |
| − Total debt | −INR 59.75B |
| Equity value | INR 441.23T |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 2.71B |
| Value per share | INR 163,068.99 |
| Market cap | INR 3.59T |
USD statements converted at 95.14 INR.
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.22% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.72% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 24.7% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 1.6% |
| WACC | 7.74% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.74% | 213,612.38 | 236,802.77 | 267,144.81 | 308,553.61 | 368,439.92 |
| 6.74% | 171,503.40 | 185,502.26 | 202,798.53 | 224,714.69 | 253,389.58 |
| 7.74% | 142,950.10 | 152,134.74 | 163,068.99 | 176,306.53 | 192,662.17 |
| 8.74% | 122,332.12 | 128,714.90 | 136,118.07 | 144,808.27 | 155,153.91 |
| 9.74% | 106,757.66 | 111,384.44 | 116,648.25 | 122,690.88 | 129,699.52 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (FY2026) | — | INR 17.65T | — | — |
| Year 1 | 6.7% | INR 18.83T | 0.928 | INR 17.48T |
| Year 2 | 6.7% | INR 20.10T | 0.861 | INR 17.31T |
| Year 3 | 6.7% | INR 21.44T | 0.800 | INR 17.15T |
| Year 4 | 6.7% | INR 22.88T | 0.742 | INR 16.98T |
| Year 5 | 6.7% | INR 24.41T | 0.689 | INR 16.82T |
| Year 6 | 5.9% | INR 25.84T | 0.639 | INR 16.52T |
| Year 7 | 5.0% | INR 27.14T | 0.593 | INR 16.11T |
| Year 8 | 4.2% | INR 28.27T | 0.551 | INR 15.57T |
| Year 9 | 3.3% | INR 29.22T | 0.511 | INR 14.94T |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | INR 29.95T | 0.474 | INR 14.21T |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.