GUD.TO
KNIGHT THERAPEUTICS INCClosedGUD.TO discounted cash flow valuation
GUD.TO Fair Value
Reverse DCF: today's price implies -7.5% a year of FCF growth for years 1–5, against 25.0% in this model.
Model: 25.0% from analyst next-year EPS & revenue growth (capped). Fades linearly to terminal growth by year 10.
Model: 7.75% (CAPM, see the build-up).
Long-run growth after year 10; keep it at or below nominal GDP.
Value Bridge
| PV of free cash flow, years 1–10 | CAD 1.83B |
|---|---|
| PV of terminal value (70% of EV) | CAD 4.30B |
| Enterprise value | CAD 6.13B |
| + Cash & investments | CAD 121.17M |
| − Total debt | −CAD 34.28M |
| Equity value | CAD 6.22B |
| ÷ Shares outstanding | 98.23M |
| Value per share | CAD 63.30 |
| Market cap | CAD 1.04B |
Discount Rate Build-up
| Risk-free rate (10-yr Treasury) | 5.19% |
|---|---|
| Beta (clamped 0.5–2.5) | 0.50 |
| Equity risk premium | 5.00% |
| Cost of equity (CAPM) | 7.69% |
| Pre-tax cost of debt | 12.00% |
| Tax rate | 19.8% |
| Debt / (equity + debt) | 3.2% |
| WACC | 7.75% |
Cost of debt is interest expense ÷ total debt, held between the risk-free rate and 12%.
Free Cash Flow: History and Projection
Sensitivity: Value per Share
| WACC ↓ / g → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.75% | 84.49 | 94.30 | 107.14 | 124.63 | 149.91 |
| 6.75% | 66.76 | 72.69 | 80.00 | 89.27 | 101.38 |
| 7.75% | 54.79 | 58.68 | 63.30 | 68.90 | 75.81 |
| 8.75% | 46.20 | 48.89 | 52.02 | 55.69 | 60.06 |
| 9.75% | 39.74 | 41.69 | 43.91 | 46.46 | 49.42 |
Green is above today's price, red below (full colour at ±30%). The outlined centre cell is the current inputs.
Projected Cash Flows
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base (TTM) | — | CAD 89.08M | — | — |
| Year 1 | 25.0% | CAD 111.35M | 0.928 | CAD 103.34M |
| Year 2 | 25.0% | CAD 139.19M | 0.861 | CAD 119.89M |
| Year 3 | 25.0% | CAD 173.98M | 0.799 | CAD 139.08M |
| Year 4 | 25.0% | CAD 217.48M | 0.742 | CAD 161.34M |
| Year 5 | 25.0% | CAD 271.85M | 0.689 | CAD 187.17M |
| Year 6 | 20.5% | CAD 327.58M | 0.639 | CAD 209.32M |
| Year 7 | 16.0% | CAD 379.99M | 0.593 | CAD 225.35M |
| Year 8 | 11.5% | CAD 423.69M | 0.550 | CAD 233.19M |
| Year 9 | 7.0% | CAD 453.35M | 0.511 | CAD 231.57M |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | CAD 464.68M | 0.474 | CAD 220.29M |
Method
Two-stage free-cash-flow model, the same as the bot's lgf dcf: five years at the chosen growth rate, a straight-line fade to terminal growth by year ten, then a Gordon-growth terminal value. Everything is discounted at WACC.
Base cash flow is the trailing four quarters of operating cash flow minus capital expenditure (the latest fiscal year when quarters are missing). Default growth uses analyst long-term growth when Yahoo publishes it, else the average of next year's EPS and revenue growth, else revenue CAGR, held between −5% and 25%.
A DCF is only as good as its inputs. The terminal value is usually most of the answer, so read the sensitivity grid before the headline number. This is a model, not investment advice.